Key takeaways:
ETH ETFs have opened entry, however flows stay cyclical.
SOL’s plumbing is about: CME futures are reside, with choices slated for Oct. 13 (pending approval).
The SEC’s generic requirements now enable quicker spot-commodity ETP listings past BTC and ETH.
For SOL to outperform ETH, it would want sustained creations, tight hedging, actual onchain utilization and continued developer momentum.
It’s true that Ether (ETH) already has the pinnacle begin within the exchange-traded fund (ETF) race: Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling on July 23, 2024, attracting roughly $107 million in first-day internet inflows and opening a mainstream path for traders by brokers and retirement accounts.
Nonetheless, Solana’s (SOL) market infrastructure is catching up. The Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) launched Solana futures on March 17, 2025, with choices slated for Oct. 13.
In September 2025, the US Securities and Alternate Fee adopted “generic itemizing requirements” that streamline how exchanges can listing spot commodity exchange-traded merchandise (ETPs), doubtlessly widening the gate past Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether.
Additionally, outdoors the US, SOL already trades in regulated funding wrappers by Europe’s 21Shares and Canada’s 3iQ.
With that entry already in place, the query is whether or not a US SOL ETF can gas lasting demand that enables Solana to outperform Ether on each value and fundamentals.
Earlier than tackling that, let’s set the context.
What ETH ETFs modified, and what they didn’t
Spot Ether ETFs started buying and selling within the US on July 23, 2024. On the primary day, they recorded roughly $1 billion in buying and selling quantity and about $107 million in internet inflows, opening a mainstream channel for traders corresponding to registered funding advisers (RIAs) and establishments. Nonetheless, this nonetheless trailed the dimensions of Bitcoin’s ETF debut in January.
Flows since then have been cyclical. By means of mid-2025, ETH skilled intervals of internet creations punctuated by outflows. By late August and mid-September 2025, stories confirmed renewed power, with multi-week inflows into Ether merchandise that lifted whole crypto property below administration (AUM). Briefly, ETFs improved entry, however they didn’t eradicate market cycles.
At instances in 2025, Ether outperformed many large-cap crypto property, supported by regular ETF demand and visual institutional and treasury accumulation. This sample means that whereas ETFs don’t alter core community fundamentals, they will affect which asset leads throughout phases of capital rotation.
One design selection nonetheless issues: US ETH ETFs launched with out staking, limiting their revenue potential in contrast with holding native ETH immediately. The SEC is actively reviewing proposals to permit staking, however, as of October 2025, has delayed choices throughout a number of issuers. If staking is permitted — even partially — it may shift the trade-offs between ETF holdings and direct possession.
Do you know? US exchanges publish an indicative internet asset worth (iNAV) roughly each 15 seconds, permitting merchants to see the place an ETF ought to be priced intraday.
Solana as we speak: Utilization, progress and dangers
In Q2 2025, Solana generated over $271 million in community income, marking its third consecutive quarter main all layer-1 (L1) and layer-2 (L2) chains. In June, knowledge confirmed Solana matched the mixed month-to-month lively addresses of all different main L1s and L2s — sturdy indicators of utilization depth.
In January 2025, Solana processed $59.2 billion in peer-to-peer (P2P) stablecoin transfers, a pointy rebound from the lows of late 2024. The provision of USDC on Solana stands at roughly $9.35 billion, whereas the community’s whole stablecoin provide greater than doubled in early 2025, climbing from $5.2 billion in January to $11.7 billion in February.
Even so, Ethereum nonetheless carried nearly all of worth moved by stablecoins year-to-date — roughly 60% as of mid-2025 — displaying Solana’s good points are significant however not but dominant.
Price and pace stay key attracts: Sub-cent charges, 400-millisecond block instances and excessive throughput have made Solana a hub for decentralized trade (DEX) and perpetual futures exercise — and a focus of 2025’s memecoin growth. That quantity helps liquidity but additionally concentrates flows in speculative segments.
Two structural dangers are value watching.
Reliability: A five-hour outage on Feb. 6, 2024, required a coordinated restart and consumer patch (v1.17.20).
Regulation: Previous US SEC complaints have referenced Solana as an unregistered safety — a characterization the Solana Basis disputes. Outcomes on this space stay extremely policy-dependent.
Do you know? CME plans every day, month-to-month and quarterly expiries for SOL choices, increasing hedging menus for ETF market makers.
What a US SOL ETF would possible change
Entry and flows: Approval would open SOL to mainstream brokerage and retirement channels utilized by registered funding advisers (RIAs). That reduces operational friction for allocators and broadens the client base past crypto-native venues.
Market-making and hedging: Listed derivatives give licensed members (APs) and market makers the instruments to hedge creations and redemptions, in addition to to run foundation or relative-value trades. These mechanics assist preserve ETF costs near their NAV and assist day-one liquidity.
Regulatory runway: The SEC’s “generic itemizing requirements” widen the trail past BTC and ETH if sponsors fulfill the principles.
Ex-US demand alerts: Already, Canada’s 3iQ Solana Staking ETF (TSX: SOLQ) and Europe’s 21Shares Solana Staking ETP (SIX: ASOL) present that regulated funding wrappers for Solana can appeal to investor curiosity.
Do you know? In Europe, cryptocurrencies can’t be included in Undertakings for Collective Funding in Transferable Securities (UCITS) ETFs, so issuers use ETPs as an alternative. That’s the reason “ETP” seems on SIX and London Inventory Alternate (LSE) tickers.
Can SOL truly outperform ETH?
The bull case (six to 12 months post-approval)
A well timed US spot SOL ETF with sturdy early internet creations may outpace Ether on whole return.
Two key levers:
Broader entry: RIAs and brokerages acquire publicity below the brand new generic itemizing requirements.
Improved market mechanics: Tighter spreads and larger capability as APs hedge through CME Solana futures and listed choices.
The bottom case
Even when a SOL ETF launches strongly, flows might revert to monitoring common threat urge for food. Ether retains a structural institutional edge — because of its longer historical past, deeper allocator familiarity and established ecosystem. Weekly fund move fluctuations in crypto replicate how relative efficiency could also be uneven somewhat than decisively tilted towards SOL.
The bear case
Timelines slipping or eligibility questions below the US SEC framework may dampen expectations. Alternatively, liquidity might soften, and APs may run smaller books regardless of the supply of derivatives, limiting creations. In that state of affairs, Solana would underperform Ether, which already advantages from a extra mature distribution.
Additionally it is value noting that some regulators have expressed issues about diminished case-by-case scrutiny below the generic itemizing requirements, including coverage uncertainty for property past Bitcoin and Ether.
What to keep watch over
If a US spot SOL ETF is permitted, the true story might be what occurs subsequent.
The important thing alerts to observe are easy. Do creations and redemptions present persistent demand? Does CME open curiosity and choices exercise deepen liquidity? Do onchain metrics like lively customers, payment income, stablecoin settlement and developer progress maintain up past speculative bursts? If these needles transfer collectively, the percentages of SOL outpacing ETH rise sharply.
A Solana ETF would take away a serious entry bottleneck and arrive with stronger market infrastructure than previous cycles. But Ether has already confirmed it might probably appeal to billions by ETFs whereas anchoring the institutional dialog.
ETH stays the benchmark, and its flows — although cyclical — reveal its endurance. Whether or not Solana actually outperforms will rely much less on hype and extra on whether or not ETF inflows translate into sustained onchain adoption.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
