In a wide-ranging interview with Anthony Pompliano revealed on October 2, Jeff Park, accomplice and Chief Investing Officer at ProCap BTC, argued that gold’s surging worth and shifting international possession patterns will not be a risk to Bitcoin—however probably the catalyst for its subsequent structural leg increased. Park’s thesis facilities on flows, geopolitics, and balance-sheet mechanics: if policymakers and enormous allocators be taught to faucet the paper positive factors embedded in sovereign gold holdings, they may redirect a significant slice of that liquidity into Bitcoin and ignite what he repeatedly framed as a supercycle.
Why Gold’s Rally Might Set off A Bitcoin Supercycle
“The mathematics is fairly easy,” Park stated. “What if we discover a approach to unlock the flexibility to construct leverage on the paper positive factors of gold to take a name choice on Bitcoin? There’s one thing unimaginable right here that would occur.” In his back-of-the-envelope state of affairs, “a trillion {dollars} of Bitcoin is definitely vastly impactful for the bitcoin market.” He contrasted the magnitude of such an impulse with the dimensions of the US fiscal downside, suggesting that whereas a trillion {dollars} is small relative to public debt, it could be outsized in a younger asset with finite provide and skinny free float.
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Park’s remarks have been prompted by a easy query: why is gold ripping whereas Bitcoin has lagged on a relative foundation? He didn’t dispute gold’s management—calling it “the story of the yr”—however argued the drivers differ. Gold is presently the venue for acute geopolitical expression and central-bank rebalancing, whereas Bitcoin’s adoption curve hinges on institutional flows which might be nonetheless ramping. “Finally [these markets] are pushed by flows,” he stated, including that Bitcoin’s flows are “inevitable” as long as the institutional agenda advances with “centered deliberation.”
A vital plank of Park’s framework is the altering geography of gold. He pointed to 2 simultaneous realities: the headline that US gold reserves have reached a big notional worth due to worth—and the under-discussed incontrovertible fact that the US share of world official gold has sunk over many years. “At one level post-World Conflict II the US had over 50% of the world’s international gold reserve provide as a central financial institution and now it’s lower than 20%. So who’s making up for the compensation on their aspect? Possible China and plenty of different BRIC nations within the lead.” That shift, Park argued, helps clarify the persistence of gold’s bid.
China, in his telling, is exerting affect not solely by accumulation but in addition by constructing market infrastructure. He highlighted “the launch of the Shanghai Gold Change” and the rise of “the Shanghai Futures Change,” observing that “bodily gold now really trades in China” at a scale as soon as related to London. In a symbolic transfer earlier this yr, “for the primary time [they] opened up vaults in Hong Kong to permit offshore buyers to place their gold in reserves,” a step Park sees as a part of a longer-term technique to reinforce the creditworthiness of CNY-settled commodity commerce.
Will The US Act First?
Park then related this gold realignment to Bitcoin’s addressable demand. He referred to the state of affairs wherein the US takes the huge unrealized positive factors on its gold if marked at market and both revalues or borrows towards these positive factors to buy Bitcoin for its strategic reserve beneath President Donald Trump. “Gold has been marked on the Treasury at $42 an oz. and everyone knows proper now it’s buying and selling at [roughly] 3850… There’s a trillion {dollars} of mainly paper positive factors.” In that context, he argued that leveraging paper positive factors right into a scarce digital reserve asset may very well be a high-beta improve to the sovereign steadiness sheet.
Pressed on the political feasibility, Park distinguished between government motion and laws. “The chief path is a superb start line to create a watershed second,” he stated, however “no democratic coalition is really purchased in till a legislative movement.” The previous may display intent; the latter would make a Bitcoin reserve technique “irreversible” and align it with the broader social mandate he associates with sound-money adoption.
The crux of his “supercycle” framing is compounding. Park walked by return profiles to quantify why a big base allocation, even when financed, may matter over time. “In the event you personal Bitcoin and also you assume that it’s going to go up by 12% a yr, you’ll make a 30x in 30 years… In the event you suppose it’s really going to go up by 40% per yr, which is what the [asset] has been in any other case annualizing, it’s 10 years.” He confused that the purpose is to not promise these numbers, however as an example how modest annualized returns can cowl significant fiscal gaps when the bottom is massive sufficient and the asset is credibly scarce.
Why Is Bitcoin Lagging Gold?
Park additionally addressed why Bitcoin has not matched gold’s latest tempo. A part of the reply, he advised, is optics: Bitcoin is “residing, respiratory software program” that evolves by way of open debate, whereas gold’s attraction is its millennia-long immutability. The transparency of Bitcoin’s governance can spook newcomers who solely see the noise. “If I have been outdoors and I used to be a BlackRock ETF purchaser and I listened to the dialog that’s occurring between the Bitcoin builders, I would say, ‘Maintain on a second. That is loopy stuff.’” Even so, he framed present developer disputes—reminiscent of arguments over relay coverage or spam-filter defaults—as hygiene points, not existential ones. They matter for efficiency and propagation, however not for the core financial assurances: “21 million or bust.”
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He invoked the teachings of the block-size warfare to elucidate why the system’s checks and balances are a characteristic, not a bug. “Finally, who’s operating consensus at Bitcoin?… The node shoppers are very precious and they’re in management versus miners and their self-interests. And that was an enormous second as a result of it confirmed you decentralization was alive.” The road between hard-coded guidelines and socially enforced norms will all the time invite argument, he conceded, however in his view that course of “future-proof[s] Bitcoin as the last word retailer of worth.”
All through, Park returned to flows. Gold’s flows, in his evaluation, are being pulled by geopolitics and central-bank conduct—particularly in Asia. Bitcoin’s flows will probably be pulled by institutional adoption and, probably, by coverage innovation that converts dormant balance-sheet power into lively demand. That’s the reason he sees the belongings as enhances throughout the identical macro downside set slightly than rivals combating for a single influx.
“Gold’s best cultural energy is its impermanent fixture in our mindset and its sturdiness for eons,” he stated. Bitcoin, in contrast, presents sovereignty, portability, and programmability that youthful cohorts discover intuitive. “Younger persons are mentally extra capable of do issues that older individuals can’t… the pattern of younger individuals understanding digital retailer of wealth… is the large image.”
I spoke with @dgt10011 on whether or not we must be frightened about bitcoin lagging gold’s efficiency, sturdiness of bitcoin vs gold, how to consider bitcoin as residing software program, and a brand new theme referencing the retardification of society.
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— Anthony Pompliano (@APompliano) October 3, 2025
If that generational shift meets a government-level balance-sheet pivot, Park believes the market construction can change rapidly. “A trillion {dollars} of Bitcoin is vastly impactful,” he repeated, not as a result of it solves the whole lot in a single day, however as a result of it reorganizes incentives for issuers, custodians, and policymakers round a credibly scarce digital reserve. In that world, the current interval—the place gold leads and Bitcoin consolidates—could also be remembered not as divergence, however as staging.
“Bitcoin will catch up,” Park stated. “These are in the end pushed by flows.” And if these flows are seeded by the very gold rally now commanding headlines, the supercycle label he’s prepared to make use of is probably not hyperbole, however merely an outline of how compounding works when new liquidity lastly meets arduous caps.
At press time, BTC traded at $120,313.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
