As bitcoin
enters this week’s Bitcoin Convention in Las Vegas priced at roughly a document excessive above $109,000, merchants and analysts are intently watching whether or not it what’s develop into a pattern of poor efficiency after these occasions.
Historic knowledge compiled by Galaxy Analysis throughout 5 prior conferences from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024 reveals that bitcoin has usually fared poorly each throughout and particularly after these gatherings.
For instance, the 2019 occasion noticed a ten% decline in the course of the convention and BTC went on to tumble 24% over the next month. The 2022 convention in Miami confirmed an identical trajectory: down 1% in the course of the occasion and a steep 29% slide within the month after. Each of these cases, nevertheless, occurred in the course of bear markets.
Even in bull market years like 2023, although, value motion remained flat or barely damaging.
The latest 2024 convention in Nashville in July — which featured then-presidential candidate Donald Trump promising a strategic bitcoin reserve — posted a 4% achieve in the course of the occasion, however a quick 20% decline shortly after, coinciding with the unwinding of the yen carry commerce that triggered a broader risk-off transfer throughout international markets.
The setup this yr — which is ready to characteristic present Vice President J.D. Vance — could possibly be materially totally different as institutional engagement is rising. Nonetheless, with historic knowledge stacked towards it, bitcoin faces a psychological hurdle as a lot as a technical one. Convention weeks have develop into sell-the-news moments.
