Bitcoin (BTC) begins a brand new week with a long-awaited breakout from a slender buying and selling vary round $103,000.
BTC value motion grabs liquidity earlier than reversing to its beginning place, liquidating many an emotional dealer on the way in which. A fakeout or a style of issues to return?
The Could 18 each day and weekly shut nonetheless grew to become Bitcoin’s highest ever.
US commerce offers stay excessive on the checklist of macro volatility triggers for threat asset merchants this week.
Crypto’s correlation with shares paints a combined image, including to uncertainty over how macro developments will affect Bitcoin and altcoins going ahead.
Bitcoin alternate quantity delta turns into a key ingredient in assessing the endurance of BTC value breakouts, per evaluation from CryptoQuant.
A liquidity seize for the ages
Bitcoin value motion delivered some “traditional” strikes across the Could 18 weekly shut.
A visit to new multimonth highs close to $107,000 was adopted by a 4% correction in a matter of hours, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Professional and TradingView reveals.
The spike took out a block of liquidity nestled near all-time highs, with BTC/USD performing a liquidity “seize” designed to first squeeze out shorts after which entice late longs.
“Traditional liquidity entice above the current excessive and reversal downwards,” crypto dealer, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe responded on X.
“I feel we’ll do the identical at $100K earlier than we’ll begin breaking out above the ATHs. These are the zones to build up your Bitcoin.”
Knowledge from monitoring useful resource CoinGlass confirmed ask liquidity being replenished at $107,500, preserving the value from heading larger. The market then took out bid liquidity to $102,000.
Whole crypto liquidations within the 24 hours to the time of writing have been $673 million.
Discussing the outlook for Bitcoin, dealer CrypNuevo was amongst these arguing for warning as an alternative of getting into at any degree within the present vary above $100,000.
“From a threat administration perspective, I don’t see it price it to go lengthy proper now at market value,” he wrote in an X thread previous to the weekly shut volatility.
“Sure, value may go up because the HTF pattern suggests however as a dealer I search for low threat entries. We’re at present at resistance. Clearing it will make a way more enticing entry.”
CrypNuevo acknowledged that bullish alerts on excessive timeframes stay and highlighted the retest of the 50-week exponential transferring common (EMA) in April, which has traditionally led to new all-time highs.
This weekend, one other prediction known as for $116,000 to reach within the coming days.
Bitcoin scores highest weekly shut in historical past
It could not have lasted lengthy, however Bitcoin’s newest weekly shut has turn out to be the very best ever recorded.
Coming in at round $106,500, the weekly candle additionally allowed for a brand new all-time excessive each day shut.
Regardless of the next correction of almost 4%, merchants are eager to rejoice what they see as an underlying want for the market to push larger.
Highest weekly shut ever for Bitcoin.
The pattern is your pal! pic.twitter.com/p4td9Ab4R8
— CryptoGoos (@crypto_goos) May 19, 2025
“Highest weekly shut ever adopted by a purple begin to the week? Yeah – get the low in early, this week probably ends within the inexperienced large time,” dealer Jelle argued in an X evaluation.
Fellow dealer Chad famous that BTC/USD has additionally managed to shut above a key Fibonacci extension degree for 2 consecutive weeks — a primary of its variety.
Personal wealth supervisor Swissblock Applied sciences noticed one key ingredient to bullish continuation.
“Bitcoin flirted with $107K, grabbed liquidity above $104K–$106K however failed to carry,” it summarized in its newest X response.
“Again within the vary, help holding, for now. Bulls have one job: defend this vary.”
CoinGlass confirmed that Could is a extremely different month for BTC value motion. At the moment, its 10% positive factors sit in the course of a variety of historic outcomes, with below two weeks left till the month-to-month shut.
US commerce conflict rumbles on as Bitcoin ignores rate-cut odds
An absence of essential macroeconomic knowledge stories this week locations the concentrate on the Federal Reserve and US commerce offers.
Specifically, markets will likely be on the lookout for constructive developments concerning commerce ties between the US and its companions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised to enact new tariffs on those that don’t negotiate in “good religion.”
Information of a take care of China induced a snap response for shares earlier this month, with merchants feeling a way of aid.
This is probably not so evident because the week begins, due to the current US credit score downgrade by Moody’s, wiping 1% off shares’ futures previous to the primary Wall Avenue open.
With the greenback once more below strain, buying and selling useful resource The Kobeissi Letter instructed that Bitcoin and altcoins should profit within the present local weather.
“Crypto is loving the Moody’s downgrade: Bitcoin is now 4% away from a brand new all time excessive and up over +40% since its April low,” it famous across the weekly shut.
“Because the US Greenback weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving. Instability is Bitcoin’s greatest pal.”
Crypto can also be more and more resilient to hawkish cues from the Fed, which has given markets cause to imagine that rate of interest cuts won’t come earlier than September.
Knowledge from CME Group’s FedWatch Instrument reveals the percentages of a lower on the Fed’s upcoming June assembly at simply 12%. Jobless claims on Could 22 may shift these expectations if the outcome differs considerably from predictions.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will ship the annual Georgetown College Regulation Heart Graduation Deal with on Could 25, however it’s unlikely to supply a lot coverage perception.
Crypto shares correlation in flux
Diverging reactions to the Moody’s downgrade set the stage for a debate round crypto’s correlation with US shares.
In its newest evaluation, analysis agency Santiment couldn’t draw a transparent conclusion over the 2 asset courses’ relationship, calling them “considerably correlated.”
“With the 90-day tariff pause between the US & China Monday, markets stay inside putting distance of all-time highs,” it summarized on Could 17, referring to the S&P 500, Bitcoin and gold.
Separate findings from blockchain knowledge supplier RedStone Oracles drew a distinction between long- and short-term correlation.
Whereas damaging on a rolling seven-day foundation, it instructed Cointelegraph, a 30-day perspective delivers a “precious correlation” between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
In the meantime, market individuals have aired frustration at crypto’s susceptibility to the identical volatility triggers impacting shares.
“It was much more gratifying when $BTC traded independently of shares,” commentator IncomeSharks instructed X followers on Could 19.
“It appears now it is only a means for folks to commerce inventory futures through the weekend and mirror what the $SPY is doing through the week.”
Quantity delta warns over “native market prime”
Contemplating what it would take to launch Bitcoin again into value discovery, a brand new evaluation checked out alternate order-book conduct.
Associated: Bitcoin hitting $220K ‘cheap’ in 2025, says gold-based forecast
Binance, specifically, was below the microscope because the alternate with the biggest spot volumes. Quantity delta, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant stated, is a key ingredient in sustained value strikes.
“After the current market correction, the spot internet quantity delta on Binance has turned constructive once more,” contributor Darkfost wrote in a “Quicktake” weblog put up on Could 18.
“This alerts that purchasing exercise is selecting up on spot markets, however extra importantly, that promoting strain has considerably declined, even with BTC buying and selling above $100 000. Nevertheless, traditionally, when spot volumes on Binance rise too rapidly and too sharply, it has typically coincided with native market tops.”
Quantity delta measures the distinction in purchase and promote strain throughout candles, serving to assess the underlying power of bid and ask sides.
CryptoQuant means that buyers throwing warning to the wind round breakouts contributes to unsustainable value spikes, and monitoring quantity delta helps keep away from disadvantageous market entries.
“Fairly than being a warning signal, rising spot volumes at this level could be encouraging for market power,” Darkfost continued.
“Monitoring spot volumes can present precious insights into investor conduct, particularly on Binance, which handles the biggest share of world buying and selling.”
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
