Polygon-based Polymarket has seen a considerable portion of its 2024 buying and selling quantity—88%—stemming from bets associated to U.S. election outcomes, based on Dune Analytics knowledge.
Elections in America have dominated exercise on blockchain prediction platforms like Polymarket, which has recorded over $650 million in buying and selling this yr. Almost half of that quantity occurred in July alone, as merchants positioned important bets on candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris turning into president in November.
Richard Chen, a former common accomplice at 1confirmation, famous that Dune knowledge exhibits markets tagged “Presidential Election Winner 2024” and “Democratic Nominee” account for 50% of the platform’s buying and selling quantity.
Election-related bets have outperformed wagers on different occasions, such because the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund in January and even the Paris Olympics this month.
Past non-election occasions, curiosity within the Polygon-powered betting service nonetheless made its mark all year long. Quantity spikes unrelated to America’s presidential poll have been recorded in January, Might, June, and August.
Whereas Polymarket has proven robust efficiency this yr, the query stays whether or not it might probably keep its momentum throughout a non-election yr. Chen believes that crypto whales and the platform’s present momentum will proceed to drive enough quantity.
Polymarket: Harris forward of Trump
Customers with wagers within the prediction market’s largest wager backed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to beat former president Donald Trump on the poll.
As crypto.information reported, Harris upstaged Trump’s earlier lead shortly after the Republican runner survived an try on his life throughout a Pennsylvania rally. Harris had a 51% probability of successful, in comparison with Trump’s 47%, with Polymarket customers having positioned $642 million in cumulative bets on the election consequence.
