Robinhood is pushing deeper into crypto infrastructure with the launch of its personal blockchain community, tokenized shares and decentralized lending merchandise, at the same time as considered one of its fastest-growing income alternatives could also be forming exterior crypto.
On July 1, the brokerage launched the general public mainnet for Robinhood Chain at a London occasion, marking its most direct transfer but into onchain monetary infrastructure.
The Ethereum layer-2 community, constructed on Arbitrum, is designed to assist tokenized real-world belongings, decentralized finance purposes and buying and selling exercise tied to Robinhood’s increasing international product suite.
The launch provides Robinhood extra management over the infrastructure behind its tokenized inventory ambitions. Inventory Tokens are actually out there by way of Robinhood Pockets in additional than 120 nations, although entry varies by jurisdiction.
The corporate mentioned eligible customers will have the ability to commerce tokenized equities across the clock and use them throughout decentralized finance purposes, together with lending swimming pools and collateral for buying and selling.
Robinhood additionally launched Robinhood Earn, a decentralized lending product that permits eligible US customers to lend USDG, its dollar-backed stablecoin, by way of a self-custody pockets.
The product gives an estimated 7% annual share yield and makes use of lending infrastructure powered by Morpho, with insurance coverage procured by way of Lloyd’s of London and RELM for coated losses tied to cyber or good contract exploits.
The crypto rollout got here alongside a broader slate of enlargement. The corporate revealed plans to launch crypto buying and selling within the UK, to make its providers out there in Canada following its acquisition of WonderFi, and to have acquired a capital markets providers license in Singapore.
These bulletins present how Robinhood is making an attempt to show a retail brokerage into a world buying and selling venue spanning shares, crypto, tokenized belongings, derivatives, decentralized finance and synthetic intelligence instruments.
But the corporate’s subsequent main income shock might come from occasion contracts, the prediction-market merchandise that enable customers to commerce on outcomes in politics, sports activities, economics and different occasions.
A crypto launch lands as occasion contracts speed up
Robinhood’s blockchain push provides the corporate a clearer basis for its tokenized asset technique at a time when prediction markets are starting to problem crypto buying and selling as a supply of transaction income.
Artemis analyst Crossroads suggests Robinhood’s prediction-market income might exceed its crypto income as early because the second quarter.
The report cited about 12.3 billion occasion contracts traded by way of June 25. At a typical take fee of 1 cent per contract, that will indicate at the very least $123 million in quarterly income earlier than the ultimate days of June are included.
That determine would put prediction markets inside attain of Robinhood’s first-quarter crypto transaction income, when the corporate reported $134 million.
Whereas crypto volumes confirmed some enchancment in June, they remained below stress in contrast with earlier intervals, with institutional exercise carrying decrease take charges than retail buying and selling.
The comparability isn’t closing till Robinhood studies second-quarter earnings. However the estimates level to a shift in how traders might must view the corporate.
Certainly, Robinhood has lengthy been handled partly as a retail crypto proxy as a result of buying and selling booms in Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and different digital belongings have flowed into its outcomes. A bigger contribution from occasion contracts would make that relationship much less direct.
Prediction markets have additionally grown regardless of authorized and regulatory challenges. Robinhood has provided occasion contracts by way of its partnership with Kalshi, one of many main US platforms within the class.
Chief Govt Officer Vlad Tenev has described the corporate as close to the start of a prediction-market cycle, and Robinhood executives have pointed to a $500 million annual income run fee.
Sports activities markets, together with World Cup-related exercise, have helped the latest surge. That creates a transparent sturdiness take a look at. Volumes tied to a serious international occasion can fade after the match ends.
Nonetheless, Artemis argued that Kalshi’s development exterior sports activities and Robinhood’s distribution give the enterprise a path past one occasion cycle.
Robinhood is shifting from distribution into infrastructure
The extra essential improvement for Robinhood could also be its try and personal extra of the plumbing behind its merchandise.
That shift is seen in crypto by way of Robinhood Chain. The community is constructed to offer builders with a platform for tokenized belongings and decentralized finance instruments, with integrations from companies together with Alchemy, BitGo and Chainlink.
Uniswap can also be deploying a devoted automated market maker on the chain, whereas Pleiades is deploying a proprietary automated market maker to function a buying and selling venue.
The identical infrastructure logic is rising in prediction markets by way of Rothera, the platform tied to Robinhood and Susquehanna. Rothera remains to be small in contrast with Kalshi and Polymarket, and its long-term monetization has not been established.
Nevertheless, the platform has generated greater than $900 million in quantity over a latest one-week interval, giving Robinhood a possible path to function extra instantly available in the market fairly than relying completely on third-party venues.
That distinction might develop into essential if Robinhood begins routing extra of its personal app-based event-contract exercise by way of Rothera. A brokerage that controls the buyer interface and extra of the underlying market infrastructure can seize extra of the economics, set pricing extra aggressively, and use liquidity from one facet of the enterprise to strengthen the opposite.
The technique resembles the broader strategy behind Robinhood Chain. In each instances, Robinhood is making an attempt to maneuver past merely providing entry to exterior markets. It’s constructing or aligning with infrastructure that may sit beneath the buying and selling exercise itself.
That doesn’t take away the dangers. Rothera presently lacks the dimensions of the largest prediction-market platforms. Its latest quantity could also be partly tied to momentary demand in sports activities.
Robinhood’s economics might additionally differ relying on whether or not trades proceed to stream by way of Kalshi, transfer to Rothera, or use a mixture of each venues.
Furthermore, the regulatory path for prediction markets stays unsettled, particularly if the class continues to increase past slender monetary and sports activities contracts.
Perpetual futures widen the buying and selling menu
Robinhood’s derivatives enlargement in Europe reveals that the corporate can also be constructing a extra standard buying and selling enterprise round superior merchandise.
The brokerage mentioned commodity, ETF and international change perpetual futures are being rolled out to eligible European customers, including belongings akin to gold, silver, QQQ, EUR/USD, WTI, Brent crude and EWY. The merchandise enable as much as 10x leverage and buying and selling across the clock.
Robinhood additionally mentioned Bitstamp by Robinhood launched multi-asset perpetual futures, giving institutional market individuals entry to FX, fairness indices, commodities and crypto from a single pool of capital.
The providing makes use of a US dollar-settled account with unified collateral administration, reference costs from Kaiko Benchmark Indices and matching know-how powered by Nasdaq. Bitstamp by Robinhood operates as a MiFID II-authorized multilateral buying and selling facility in Europe.
The enlargement provides Robinhood extra methods to compete with crypto-native exchanges, conventional brokerages and derivatives venues. It additionally reveals how the corporate is making use of crypto-style buying and selling mechanics, together with perpetual futures and 24-hour market entry, to conventional asset courses.
That technique might make Robinhood much less depending on any single cycle. Crypto buying and selling income has traditionally been unstable, rising sharply throughout retail-led rallies and falling when token costs and volumes weaken.
Perpetual futures, prediction markets, tokenized shares, and lending merchandise might present the corporate with further income streams with distinct demand drivers.
AI instruments push the platform nearer to automated buying and selling
Robinhood can also be making ready to convey extra automation into crypto buying and selling by way of Agentic Accounts for eligible US customers.
The device will enable customers to attach AI fashions to Robinhood’s buying and selling infrastructure by way of its Buying and selling MCP. The corporate mentioned customers will retain management over the quantity of capital allotted and the security limits utilized to the technique, whereas AI brokers can scan information and execute trades inside these parameters.
Robinhood has already launched agentic buying and selling for equities and choices within the US. Extending the device to crypto provides one other layer to its plan to mix retail entry, automation and multi-asset buying and selling inside a single platform.
The corporate framed the product as a method to give retail merchants entry to capabilities extra generally utilized by skilled companies.
Nevertheless, the dangers are additionally clear. Automated buying and selling instruments can amplify poor technique design, weak danger controls and sudden market strikes, significantly in crypto markets the place liquidity and volatility can shift rapidly.
The AI launch matches with Robinhood’s wider effort to make the platform extra lively, extra international and extra embedded in customers’ monetary lives. The identical occasion included a Guinness World Information demonstration during which an AI agent used a Robinhood-branded bank card to buy objects for attendees.
For traders, the take a look at is whether or not these merchandise can create sturdy income fairly than periodic bursts tied to market cycles, product launches, or main occasions.
