Bitcoin’s 200-week transferring common, sitting at round $61,700, is the road the market is watching most intently proper now.
That stage has marked the underside of each main Bitcoin bear cycle going again to 2015, and it held once more this week — at the very least for now.
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A Traditional Backside Sign — Or Simply A Pause?
The selloff dragged Bitcoin all the way down to round $61,300 earlier than consumers pushed the worth again up previous $64,750, a restoration of greater than 5%.
Experiences say the rebound got here alongside information that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire, although the worth motion itself was already being formed by a large liquidation occasion.
Over $740 million in BTC positions had been worn out in a 24-hour window, based on information from CoinGlass. Lengthy merchants took the majority of the hit, with greater than $623 million in bullish bets liquidated as the worth fell.
Bear Flag Nonetheless Looms
Bitcoin’s weekly chart reveals a bear flag breakdown nonetheless in progress. The sample factors to a possible drop into the $50,000–$52,000 vary, and the setup has gained weight from rising buying and selling volumes on the draw back transfer.
BTC has to this point didn’t reclaim the higher development line of the flag. That failure retains the bearish situation technically intact, even after Thursday’s bounce.
Some merchants are studying the transfer otherwise. Analyst ZordXBT pointed to the lengthy decrease wick on Bitcoin’s candle as an indication that consumers got here in exhausting close to the lows. Dealer RidaaXBT known as for a short-term aid bounce towards the $69,000–$70,000 vary, arguing that the liquidation wave might have cleared out sufficient near-term promoting strain to permit a restoration.
$BTC
Similar to that, BTC dumped to the 61k stage, which is most certainly the native backside for now.
Anticipating a aid bounce from right here, with a possible transfer again towards the 69k–70k area. https://t.co/q5VGRG2Id1 pic.twitter.com/83U7H7Phog
— Ridaa (@RidaaXBT) June 4, 2026
Not Everybody Is Satisfied
Not all market watchers are shopping for the optimism. Dealer Hitman42.eth warned that bulls could also be strolling right into a entice, suggesting the bounce might lure in new lengthy positions earlier than one other leg down.
everybody cheering this $3k bitcoin:native bounce is totally ignoring the graveyard they only walked over.
$600m in longs simply received vaporized in 60 minutes flat. we tapped $61k proper above the february lows and bounced.
catching a falling knife after a structural flush is… pic.twitter.com/5QpE8Vv8Rc
— hitman42.eth (@ihitman42) June 4, 2026
The 200-week transferring common stays the important thing dividing line. So long as BTC holds above $61,700, the bear flag breakdown isn’t confirmed. A convincing restoration from that stage would put $70,000 again in play as the following significant worth goal.
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Bitcoin has examined the 200-week common at main lows earlier than — in 2018 and once more through the March 2020 crash — and bounced sharply every time.
Whether or not this week’s contact of that stage marks an identical turning level, or only a transient pause earlier than a deeper drop, stays an open query.
Featured picture from Gemini, chart from TradingView
