In line with economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin has a 50% probability of topping $140,000 earlier than the month ends. He posted that chance on X and backed it with simulation work that makes use of a decade of value strikes to map probably outcomes.
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Simulation Primarily based On Historic Knowledge
Peterson stated the mannequin runs a whole bunch of simulations utilizing every day Bitcoin costs going again to 2015. Primarily based on these runs, he put the prospect Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000 at 50%.
He additionally gave a 43% likelihood that the value will finish the month beneath $136k. On the time he spoke, Bitcoin was buying and selling at $121,200. Which means an increase of about 11% can be wanted to achieve $140,000 from the present degree.
Half of Bitcoin’s October positive factors could have already occurred, in accordance with this AI simulation.
There’s a 50% probability Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
However there’s a 43% probability Bitcoin finishes beneath $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
Bitcoin set a recent all-time excessive of $126,200 on Monday, then cooled off. The coin started October at roughly $116,500, so the month has already produced positive factors.
In line with information, October has been the second-best month on common since 2013, with typical positive factors of 20%. Studies have disclosed that November is the strongest month traditionally, averaging 46% positive factors since 2013.
No Human Emotion
Peterson described his forecast as pushed by information relatively than human emotion. He stated every projection follows value modifications that mirror Bitcoin’s previous volatility and rhythm.
That strategy goals to take away bias from short-term sentiment. Nonetheless, there are limits to what historic simulations can present.
Bitcoin has generally moved in ways in which didn’t match previous patterns. Market reactions, coverage strikes, and different forces can push costs off the script that historical past suggests.
Market Sentiment Stays Bullish
Different analysts on social platforms urged continued optimism after the current excessive. One analyst stated the market was retesting prior highs and will transfer larger.
One other wrote that stress was constructing for additional positive factors. These views sit alongside data-led forecasts and are being watched by merchants and funds.
Bitcoin is the brand new hurdle charge.
When you can’t beat it, you must purchase it.
I defined on @SquawkCNBC this morning why so many buyers will not be producing the returns they suppose they’re. pic.twitter.com/re98rjCDua
— Anthony Pompliano (@APompliano) October 7, 2025
Macro Notes From A Distinguished Investor
Studies have additionally carried feedback from Anthony Pompliano, who argued on CNBC that Bitcoin’s rally can proceed if governments and central banks hold printing cash.
JUST IN: Anthony Pompliano tells CNBC Bitcoin won’t ever cease going up.
“They may by no means cease printing cash.” pic.twitter.com/qeWJnTsIb3
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 7, 2025
His view hyperlinks financial coverage to Bitcoin demand, and it’s broadly shared amongst supporters who see the asset as a hedge.
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Featured picture from Verdict, chart from TradingView
